Nike
Team Nationals
Saturday, December 1st, 2007 @ Portland Oregon
Meet Preview - Rich
Gonzalez
Defending champion Manlius NY girls
seem unstoppable;
Dana Point CA is the pick in a balanced boys field.
by Rich Gonzalez in Portland
Rankings are out -- regional races are in!
Controversy is out -- head-on clashing is in!
Mud-caked championship course is out??? -- Snow is in !?!!
As quickly as the Nike Teams Nationals format has continually
evolved in just three-plus years, the
refinements have resulted in a new era of growth for the sport
of cross-country.
Record participation numbers are evident across the map, performance
levels have skyrocketed as
once thought-to-be untouchable course records now tumble like dominoes,
and the "all-timer" lists are
quickly becoming a "has been" lists!
And most importantly, the era of mythical paper champions has
been purged, now replaced by an
infusion of regionalized blockbuster clashes across hill and dale
to identify who is truly number one.
This year's return to Portland Meadows for the fourth edition
of the NTN extravaganza even has
another anticipated new twist. Internet weather forecasts over
the last week called for highs in the upper
30s and sunny conditions but have in the last few hours given way
to predictions of snow flurries on
Thursday and additional snow on race day according to the local
TV station weather reports.
First regionals, then a revamped at-large format, and now snow
instead of mud at NTN?
Can anyone run with defending champions Manlius NY girls?
Does this foretell a possible overhaul of the results trend we've
seen in recent years, where New York
girls teams have dominated? Is the reign of the Big Apple over?
Will pesky 130-pound worms from other
regions eat away at the core of what has been our nation's finest?
Are New York's female runners finally
going down the for count?
NOT!!!
Manlius XC Club of New York appears to be the class of the nation
in 2007, with Coach Bill Aris' crew
this year repeatedly dismantling all challengers, even often doing
so when being shorthanded at major
meets. Without question, his group has thus far shown to be the
best in the land this fall and perhaps the
second-finest from the state's all-time annals, trailing only the
super 2004 crew from Kinetic Racing Club
(Saratoga Springs) that dominated the inaugural NTN challenge.
Strong frontrunners, sensational depth, a
master coach, and an eye on the big prize are a perfect combination
for success which last year
unlocked the team's first national crown.
Can anyone in the land run with Manlius in 2007? On a snowy or
muddy course, probably not. And
even on any type of course, the jury is still out.
It might take an earthquake from California
Perhaps only an earthquake can shake the New Yorkers from their
perch.
Enter the top team from California, the earthquake epicenter of
America.
Newhall XC Club of Saugus, CA comes in as a team on a tear, destroying
the all-time course records
at both Mt. SAC -- site to the nation's largest invitational --
and Woodward Park, the permanent home of
the California state meet and one-time residence of the FootLocker
(then named Kinney) Wes Regionals
meet.
Newhall has amazing balance at the front of races, often with
6 or 7 girls storming through courses at
national-class pace. The group is very fit, very tough and very
focused, but under Southern Section rules
will be without Coach Rene Paragas and staff as after-the-state-meet
contact with athletes in preparation
for subsequent competitions is prohibited. The squad is anxious
for another crack at a high-end finish,
especially after the flu bug plagued that team throughout NTN week
in 2006.
Midwest powers
Additional powers from the Midwest and Southwest regions will
seek to pull the upset, with three-time
defending Indiana state champion Westfield seeking to earn redemption
after being beaten by in-state
rival Lake Central at the Midwest Regional. The Northeast Region
checks in with surprise regional winner
Eastern Mass (athletes from Lincoln Sudbury) as part of a group
of teams that held their own against
the New York Region powers at the midseason Manhattan Invitational.
Boys race should be a doozy
Naperville IL (athletes from Neuqua Valley) is the odds-on favorite
despite
commonly having a 40-second gap knifing between its final two scorers.
But Naperville gets the job
done up front better than anyone, especially with the top frontrunner
in the field (with apologies in
advance to Albuquerque's Ben Johnson (Albuquerque Academy, NM)
in senior Chris Derrick, who sliced
15 seconds off Evan Jager's Detweiler Park course record (current
version). Add in the fact that three
teammates can typically gap an average of 50 seconds behind their
national-class pacesetter and one
can see why they're the favorite.
Dana Point CA is the pick
But in a meet of this caliber, 35-40 seconds between your 4th
and 5th man can be an eternity, which is
why for the first time in NTN's short history, this native Californian
is picking a Golden State team to pull
the upset. After an inauspicious start to 2007 for a team showcasing
considerable talent from a year ago,
Dana Point (athletes from Dana Hills, CA) finally began turning
the corner on its season with with major wins at the
Orange County and Mt. SAC meets. Then came even more commanding
margins of victory at the
Division I Southern Section and State meets.
While depth has always been its calling card, this year's Dana
crew has improved notably at both the
front and back ends in recent weeks. Tyler Valdes tore through
the Mt. SAC course in 15:00 while four
teammates gapped within 48 seconds behind him at the section finals.
Then came a stunning
development at the state meet, where a usual scorer was sick but
another stepped up to run 15:53 at
Woodward Park (a 15:35 equivalent on the Mt. SAC course at worst)
as its fifth scorer. Such depth
warrants talk as the crew perhaps having the best depth in state
history. Don't worry too much about the
"
cold and muddy" factor affecting this crew -- Dana Point is
being coach by school alum and recent
Columbia University (NY) graduate Tyler Kastorff, who assured these
beach boys would be unfazed by
the weather elements.
Others are strong too
Danbury CT, a team loaded with talent and the preseason #1 byThe
Harrier Magazine,
remains a viable threat from the Northeast, along with Brookline
MA, a team that pulled out
a one-point decision between the two at the regional final. It'll
be very interesting to see how juggernaut
powers Los Alamos NM and Albuquerque NM (Academy) hold up this
weekend, especially after
repeated high-end clashes culminating with trading wins at the
state meet and Southwest Region
in recent successive weekends.
Additionally, North Central WA and Murrieta CA were very strong
out of the gates, with Murrieta rebounding well
at its state meet while North Central has labored to keep its long
season going.
a longshot for the race track setting
Since this is a race track we're running on, here's a longshot
pick that could pay off: Portland (Central Catholic HS).
The group was extremely impressive in winning the Oregon state
meet, is well-coached, boasts a very proud
tradition and will be competing in front of the hometown fans.
Be sure to tune in Saturday at 10;15 a.m. PST for the live Webcast!
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